It was a mistake to stop my devolution from truth after three steps:
Counting > Estimating > Modeling.
Lesley Gordon has come up with a fourth that she likes very much - feeling.
Let the sequence be revised:
Counting > Estimating > Modeling > Feeling.
Hearken to her: "That [ACW death total] number just sat there -- 620,000 -- for a century ... [it] doesn't feel right anymore."
It just sat there, like volcanic rock spit out in some forgotten geological age. Whence it came, none can know. Generations of historians made the pilgrimage to rub this Kabaa, awed by its mysteries.
Now, it doesn't feel right anymore.
The ACW historian's aversion to counting doesn't get any worse than this.